Contact: emmanuel.rouges@unil.ch
Office 4431, Géopolis Building
Emmanuel Rouges is a postdoctoral researcher in the atmospheric processes group.
His research focuses on drivers and predictability of extremes, in particular at the subseasonal time range.
During his PhD at ECMWF, he studied heatwaves and their prediction at the subseasonal range. He devised a pattern-based forecasting method using heatwave circulation types to forecast heatwaves. He showcased its benefits in comparison to using direct 2mT forecast from the model. He further investigated the impact soil moisture conditions, and the tropical convection could have on heatwave predictability.
Western European heatwave circulation type. Colours show the 2mT anomaly and contours show the Z500 anomaly.
In a postdoc at the University of Reading he explored the relationship between weather regimes on both energy demand and renewable energy generation. In particular, which weather regimes favour the occurrence of compounding high demand and low renewable generation periods.
Colours show the weather regimes with the highest conditional probability of shortfall days (shortfall: energy demand minus wind and solar generation; shortfall days: above 90th percentile of shortfall)
His key areas of expertise are subseasonal prediction and associated drivers, weather regimes, heatwaves and energy meteorology.
Publications available here.