{"id":6943,"date":"2026-10-05T15:50:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/?p=6943"},"modified":"2026-10-05T15:51:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:51:52","slug":"transciption-de-linterview-du-geologue-michel-jaboyedoff-quels-enseignements-tirer-de-la-crue-au-nepal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/transciption-de-linterview-du-geologue-michel-jaboyedoff-quels-enseignements-tirer-de-la-crue-au-nepal\/","title":{"rendered":"Transciption de l&#8217;Interview du g\u00e9ologue Michel Jaboyedoff: Quels enseignements tirer de la crue au N\u00e9pal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2026\/audio\/tout-un-monde-14-09-29356501.html\">https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2026\/audio\/tout-un-monde-14-09-29356501.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"#eng_jump\">English<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[Journaliste]:<\/strong> Il y a trois semaines, une avalanche d&#8217;eau, de boue, de roche d\u00e9ferlait dans une vall\u00e9e \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re entre la Chine et le N\u00e9pal. Au moins 1400 morts et plus de 5000 disparus. Le gouvernement n\u00e9palais estime aujourd&#8217;hui \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9quivalent de 3,7 milliards de francs le co\u00fbt de la reconstruction. Il attribue la catastrophe au changement climatique et va d&#8217;ailleurs demander des r\u00e9parations. Nous allons venir \u00e0 ce m\u00e9canisme de justice climatique dans quelques minutes. Nous allons voir quels enseignements on peut d\u00e9j\u00e0, peut-\u00eatre, tirer de la catastrophe avec notre invit\u00e9. Bonjour Michel Jaboyedoff. Bonjour. Vous \u00eates g\u00e9ologue, sp\u00e9cialiste des dangers naturels, professeur \u00e0 l&#8217;Institut des sciences de la terre de l&#8217;universit\u00e9 de Lausanne. D&#8217;abord, est-ce qu&#8217;\u00e0 l&#8217;heure o\u00f9 on parle, le risque li\u00e9 \u00e0 cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement est termin\u00e9 ? On \u00e9voquait la formation de nouveaux lacs dans le couloir de l&#8217;Avalanche. A priori, il n&#8217;y a pas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M Jabo]:<\/strong> Alors \u00e7a, ce n\u2019est certainement pas termin\u00e9. Il y a eu deux lacs, alors il y en a qui se sont r\u00e9sorb\u00e9s. En g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, \u00e7a peut se r\u00e9sorber naturellement. Mais \u00e0 la suite d\u2019un tel \u00e9v\u00e9nement, vous avez \u00e0 la base, vous avez ce mouvement qui fait une \u00e9rosion \u00e0 la base des pentes. Et comme on a pu l&#8217;observer, le deuxi\u00e8me lac, c&#8217;\u00e9tait le r\u00e9sultat d&#8217;un glissement de terrain qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clench\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le passage de ce torrent \u00e9norme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Et donc sur les hypoth\u00e8ses pour la catastrophe originelle, donc l&#8217;effondrement d&#8217;un glacier, la vidange d&#8217;un lac glaciaire, \u00e7a on y voit plus clair aujourd&#8217;hui ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Alors \u00e7a c&#8217;\u00e9tait assez \u00e9vident, enfin en tant que g\u00e9ologue on \u00e9tait&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Vous n&#8217;avez pas beaucoup dout\u00e9 ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> On n&#8217;a pas beaucoup dout\u00e9 que c&#8217;\u00e9tait de la roche et de la glace par-dessus comme \u00e7a s&#8217;est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 Chamoli il n&#8217;y a que 5 ans. C&#8217;est-\u00e0-dire que vous avez un grand pan de roche qui est tomb\u00e9, et avec le glacier qui est dessus. Mais tr\u00e8s certainement ce qui s&#8217;est produit c&#8217;est que les temp\u00e9ratures \u00e9lev\u00e9es et la mousson qui a amen\u00e9 de l&#8217;eau pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment assez fortement, pas imm\u00e9diatement avant mais plus avant, a permis d&#8217;avoir des \u00e9coulements d&#8217;eau sous le glacier qui ont pu faire monter des pressions dans la roche et puis c&#8217;est probablement la source du d\u00e9clenchement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> En quoi c&#8217;est comparable ou pas avec ce qu&#8217;on a connu en Suisse, \u00e0 Blatten?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Alors c&#8217;est plus comparable \u00e0 ce qui s&#8217;est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 Bondo, puisque c&#8217;est du point de vue du processus. Mais \u00e0 Blatten aussi bien s\u00fbr. \u00c0 Blatten, la chose est que si l&#8217;\u00e9v\u00e9nement, le premier \u00e9v\u00e9nement, si tout \u00e9tait tomb\u00e9 d&#8217;un coup, parce que vous vous rappelez que c&#8217;\u00e9tait en deux phases, c&#8217;est tomb\u00e9 sur le glacier puis apr\u00e8s c&#8217;est parti. Si c&#8217;\u00e9tait parti d&#8217;un coup, eh bien un tel \u00e9v\u00e9nement de plus petite ampleur, bien s\u00fbr, aurait pu se produire avec des&#8230; Parce qu&#8217;on conna\u00eet tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s mal le comportement de la glace et de la roche, de savoir \u00e0 quel moment \u00e7a devient fluide, et \u00e0 quel moment ou \u00e0 quel moment \u00e7a s&#8217;arr\u00eate. Alors on a eu de la chance \u00e0 Blatten, \u00e7a s&#8217;est arr\u00eat\u00e9 parce qu&#8217;il y avait&#8230; assez de glace pour qu&#8217;elle ne fonde pas compl\u00e8tement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Au N\u00e9pal, c&#8217;est l&#8217;\u00e9quivalent de 3,7 milliards de francs le co\u00fbt de la reconstruction, c&#8217;est ce qu&#8217;estime le gouvernement, donc les ponts, les routes, les maisons, les infrastructures qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 emport\u00e9es. Le N\u00e9pal a une certaine exp\u00e9rience de ce genre de catastrophe, peut-\u00eatre pas quand m\u00eame de cette ampleur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Non, alors de cette ampleur, certainement pas. On arrive presque au nombre de morts du tremblement de terre qui \u00e9tait de 8000 \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s. Donc c&#8217;est ph\u00e9nom\u00e9nal du point de vue de la puissance. Et donc, si vous voulez, le N\u00e9pal est habitu\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e7a, mais le gouvernement est quand m\u00eame assez faible. Il n&#8217;impose pas, notamment du point de vue de la planification territoriale, il y a beaucoup de probl\u00e8mes. Parce qu&#8217;on a vu qu&#8217;il y a beaucoup de maisons qui sont dans le lit de la rivi\u00e8re, en fond de vall\u00e9e, alors que traditionnellement, visiblement, les villages \u00e9taient au-dessus. Mais il faut bien voir que la d\u00e9mographie du N\u00e9pal est \u00e9norme. Enfin, \u00e7a a doubl\u00e9 en, je ne sais pas, 30 ans la population. Et donc le gouvernement est tr\u00e8s faible et bien entendu que s&#8217;appuie en disant que c&#8217;est le changement climatique, ce qui est certainement pas faux, il enl\u00e8ve un petit peu sa responsabilit\u00e9 o\u00f9 il y a beaucoup de travail \u00e0 faire. Alors \u00e0 l&#8217;heure actuelle, par exemple pour les glofs, donc ces lacs de barrage qui peuvent l\u00e2cher au front des glaciers, et bien l\u00e0 il y a beaucoup de gens qui y travaillent pour qu&#8217;il y ait des syst\u00e8mes d&#8217;alerte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Sauf que \u00e7a n&#8217;existe pas aujourd&#8217;hui.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Si, \u00e7a existe dans certains endroits, mais par exemple j&#8217;ai un doctorant qui est au N\u00e9pal, qui est n\u00e9palais, qui travaille l\u00e0-dessus. Mais bien entendu qu&#8217;il faut \u00e9duquer les populations, \u00e7a demande un travail \u00e9norme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Est-ce qu&#8217;il y a aussi une question d&#8217;un enjeu de souverainet\u00e9 ? On est dans une r\u00e9gion fronti\u00e8re, il y a la Chine, le N\u00e9pal, l&#8217;Inde n&#8217;est pas tr\u00e8s loin. Est-ce que \u00e7a, \u00e7a emp\u00eache aussi l&#8217;information de circuler, les am\u00e9nagements ? Est-ce qu&#8217;il y a un enjeu l\u00e0 sur la souverainet\u00e9 ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Oui et non. C&#8217;est-\u00e0-dire que la politique int\u00e9rieure, vous savez qu&#8217;il y a eu des gu\u00e9rillas et tout \u00e7a, donc \u00e7a s\u2019est compliqu\u00e9. La relation de leurs deux voisins ne sont pas excellentes, entre l&#8217;Inde et la Chine. N\u00e9anmoins, les cours d\u2019eau partent de Chine et vont en Inde, ou bien voil\u00e0. Donc \u00e0 terme, moi je pense que si les gouvernements n\u00e9palais sont clairvoyants, un accord avec les deux pays pourrait vraiment amener \u00e0 beaucoup am\u00e9liorer les choses. Et je dirais aussi que le N\u00e9pal doit se prendre en main. Il faudrait, \u00e0 mon sens, cr\u00e9er un centre de recherche n\u00e9palais qui soit financ\u00e9 par l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur. Il y a beaucoup de chercheurs n\u00e9palais. Moi je viens de recevoir un N\u00e9palais qui est en Allemagne Shiva Pudasaini qui est un sp\u00e9cialiste de la mod\u00e9lisation de ce genre d&#8217;\u00e9v\u00e9nements et qui pourrait tr\u00e8s bien retourner pendant trois mois ou quelque chose au N\u00e9pal pour aider les gens localement, pour enseigner et tout \u00e7a. Mais il faut vraiment des moyens pour qu&#8217;on cr\u00e9e cette culture \u00e0 la fois scientifique, technique et de communication vis-\u00e0-vis des populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> En termes d&#8217;alerte, est-ce qu&#8217;on peut faire de la surveillance en temps r\u00e9el, par satellite ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Alors satellite en temps r\u00e9el, non. Le satellite en temps r\u00e9el c&#8217;est compliqu\u00e9 pour le moment. \u00c0 ma connaissance il n&#8217;existe pas de syst\u00e8me de ce type. Mais on peut faire des choses p\u00e9riodiques en regardant les mouvements qu&#8217;on peut observer de tr\u00e8s petite ampleur, et puis aussi des photographies bien s\u00fbr, de satellites. \u00c7a ce sont des choses qu&#8217;on peut faire, mais il faut aussi des investigations locales. Il faut vraiment un programme dans l&#8217;Himalaya, parce qu&#8217;on a eu des choses en Inde aussi qui se sont produites. Et il faut absolument qu&#8217;on puisse commencer \u00e0 faire une cartographie et mettre des instruments l\u00e0 o\u00f9 c&#8217;est sensible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Et c&#8217;est quelque chose de tr\u00e8s difficile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Oui, parce que c&#8217;est une r\u00e9gion tr\u00e8s tr\u00e8s vaste, donc on ne peut pas tout surveiller, il faut trier, il faut voir l\u00e0 o\u00f9 c&#8217;est sensible. C&#8217;est-\u00e0-dire qu&#8217;il faut premi\u00e8rement faire un screening, c&#8217;est-\u00e0-dire la premi\u00e8re chose c&#8217;est d&#8217;aller faire une cartographie globale, il faut beaucoup de moyens pour faire \u00e7a. Les Chinois font \u00e7a beaucoup maintenant au Tibet. Et bien s\u00fbr qu&#8217;il faut pouvoir faire cette cartographie et ensuite on va faire des choix, comme on le fait ici en fait, la m\u00eame chose, mais le territoire est \u00e9norme. On a eu 200 morts il y a un an en Inde avec des fortes pluies et puis un lave-torrentiel qui a balay\u00e9 \u00e0 Dharali. Donc augmenter la surveillance, la question des alertes, ne pas reconstruire \u00e0 l&#8217;identique aussi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Ces maisons en fond de vall\u00e9e, au fond, il ne faut pas reconstruire \u00e7a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Absolument, il faut maintenant avoir des r\u00e8glements stricts et que ce soit respect\u00e9. Et \u00e7a, le gouvernement doit \u00eatre fort et \u00e7a c&#8217;est un peu le probl\u00e8me du N\u00e9pal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Vous l&#8217;\u00e9voquiez, peut-\u00eatre que d&#8217;attribuer la catastrophe au changement climatique, c&#8217;est une mani\u00e8re pour le gouvernement n\u00e9palais de se d\u00e9gager en partie en tout cas de ses responsabilit\u00e9s, mais quand m\u00eame, est-ce que vous qui \u00eates scientifique, le r\u00e9chauffement climatique joue malgr\u00e9 tout quand m\u00eame un r\u00f4le l\u00e0-dedans ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Oui, on ne peut pas, maintenant je ne peux pas vous prouver que c&#8217;\u00e9tait le changement climatique. Mais le fait qu&#8217;il y ait eu cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement, c&#8217;est tr\u00e8s probablement que le glacier a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 fondre plus intens\u00e9ment que pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment ou m\u00eame qu&#8217;il a chang\u00e9 de r\u00e9gime et que vous avez de l&#8217;eau dessous qui est g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e soit par les pr\u00e9cipitations pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes ou les temp\u00e9ratures fortes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALISTE]:<\/strong> Merci beaucoup Michel Jaboyedoff d&#8217;\u00eatre revenu dans tout un monde. Vous \u00eates g\u00e9ologue sp\u00e9cialiste d&#8217;enjeux naturels et professeur \u00e0 l&#8217;Institut des sciences de la terre de l&#8217;Universit\u00e9 de Lausanne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Made with <a href=\"https:\/\/corv.unil.ch\/\">https:\/\/corv.unil.ch\/<\/a>!<\/em> <em>Avec quelques corrections notamment (Dharali s\u2019est produit en 2025)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2026\/audio\/tout-un-monde-14-09-29356501.html\">https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2026\/audio\/tout-un-monde-14-09-29356501.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"eng_jump\"><strong>Transcript of the interview with geologist Michel Jaboyedoff: What lessons can be learnt from the floods in Nepal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[Journalist]:<\/strong> Three weeks ago, a deluge of water, mud and rock swept through a valley on the border between China and Nepal. At least 1,400 people have died and more than 5,000 are missing. The Nepalese government now estimates the cost of reconstruction at the equivalent of 3.7 billion francs. It attributes the disaster to climate change and is, in fact, set to seek compensation. We\u2019ll be looking at this climate justice mechanism in a few minutes. We\u2019ll see what lessons we might already be able to learn from the disaster with our guest. Hello, Michel Jaboyedoff. Good morning. You are a geologist, a specialist in natural hazards, and a professor at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Lausanne. Firstly, as we speak, has the risk associated with this event passed? There was talk of new lakes forming in the Avalanche corridor. As far as we know, there aren\u2019t any.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M Jabo]:<\/strong> Well, that certainly isn\u2019t over yet. There were two lakes; some of them have drained away. Generally speaking, they can drain away naturally. But following an event like this, you have, at the base, this movement causing erosion at the foot of the slopes. And as we\u2019ve seen, the second lake was the result of a landslide triggered by the passage of that enormous torrent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> So, regarding the theories about the initial disaster \u2013 the collapse of a glacier, the draining of a glacial lake \u2013 do we have a clearer picture of that now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[MR JABO]:<\/strong> Well, that was quite obvious; I mean, as geologists, we were\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> You didn\u2019t have much doubt?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[MR JABO]:<\/strong> We didn\u2019t have much doubt that it was rock with ice on top, just as happened in Chamoli only five years ago. In other words, you have a large section of rock that fell, with the glacier on top of it. But what most certainly happened was that the high temperatures and the monsoon, which had brought quite heavy rainfall earlier on \u2013 not immediately beforehand but some time before \u2013 led to water flowing beneath the glacier, which may have built up pressure within the rock; and that is probably what triggered the collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> How is this comparable \u2013 or not \u2013 to what we experienced in Switzerland, in Blatten?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Well, it\u2019s more comparable to what happened in Bondo, in terms of the process. But to Blatten as well, of course. In Blatten, the thing is that if the event \u2013 the first event \u2013 had all come down in one go, because you\u2019ll recall it happened in two phases: it fell onto the glacier and then set off. If it had set off all at once, well, such an event on a smaller scale, of course, could have occurred with\u2026 Because we know very, very little about the behaviour of ice and rock \u2013 about when it becomes fluid, and at what point it stops. So we were lucky in Blatten; it stopped because there was\u2026 enough ice for it not to melt completely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> In Nepal, the cost of reconstruction is estimated by the government at the equivalent of 3.7 billion francs \u2013 that covers the bridges, roads, houses and infrastructure that were swept away. Nepal has some experience of this sort of disaster, though perhaps not on this scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> No, certainly not on this scale. The death toll is almost on a par with that of the earthquake, which was around 8,000. So it\u2019s phenomenal in terms of its sheer force. And so, if you like, Nepal is used to this sort of thing, but the government is still rather weak. It lacks the authority to enforce regulations, particularly when it comes to spatial planning; there are many problems. Because we\u2019ve seen that there are many houses situated in the riverbed, at the bottom of the valley, whereas traditionally, clearly, the villages were situated higher up. But we must bear in mind that Nepal\u2019s population is enormous. In fact, the population has doubled in, I don\u2019t know, 30 years. And so the government is very weak and, of course, it defends itself by saying it\u2019s down to climate change \u2013 which is certainly not untrue \u2013 but this shifts some of the responsibility away from itself, even though there is a great deal of work to be done. So at the moment, for example, with glacial lakes \u2013 these dammed lakes that can burst at the front of glaciers \u2013 there are a lot of people working on setting up early warning systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> Except that doesn\u2019t exist today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Yes, it does exist in some places; for example, I have a PhD student in Nepal \u2013 he\u2019s Nepalese \u2013 who\u2019s working on this. But of course we need to educate the local populations; that requires an enormous amount of work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> Is there also an issue of sovereignty at stake? We\u2019re in a border region \u2013 there\u2019s China, Nepal, and India isn\u2019t far away. Does that also prevent information from circulating and infrastructure from being developed? Is sovereignty an issue here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Yes and no. What I mean is that, in terms of domestic politics \u2013 as you know, there have been guerrilla conflicts and so on \u2013 so things have become complicated. Relations between their two neighbours, India and China, aren\u2019t exactly excellent. Nevertheless, the rivers originate in China and flow into India, or there you have it. So in the long run, I think that if the Nepalese governments are far-sighted, an agreement with both countries could really lead to a significant improvement in the situation. And I\u2019d also say that Nepal needs to take matters into its own hands. In my view, a Nepalese research centre should be set up, funded from abroad. There are plenty of Nepalese researchers. I\u2019ve just met a Nepalese man who\u2019s in Germany, Shiva Pudasaini, who specialises in modelling this sort of event and who could very well return to Nepal for three months or so to help people locally, to teach and so on. But we really need the resources to create this culture that combines science, technology and communication with the local population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> In terms of early warning, is it possible to carry out real-time monitoring via satellite?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Well, real-time satellite monitoring? No. Real-time satellite monitoring is complicated at the moment. To my knowledge, no such system exists. But we can carry out periodic monitoring by observing very small-scale movements, and of course using satellite imagery. These are things we can do, but local investigations are also needed. We really need a programme in the Himalayas, because we\u2019ve had incidents in India as well. And it\u2019s absolutely essential that we start mapping the area and deploying instruments where it\u2019s most critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> And that\u2019s a very difficult task.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[MR JABO]:<\/strong> Yes, because it\u2019s a very, very vast region, so we can\u2019t monitor everything; we have to prioritise, we have to identify where the risks lie. In other words, we first need to carry out a screening process \u2013 the first step is to produce a comprehensive map, and that requires a great deal of resources. The Chinese are doing this extensively in Tibet at the moment. And of course we need to be able to carry out this mapping, and then we\u2019ll have to make choices \u2013 just as we do here, in fact \u2013 but the territory is enormous. A year ago in India, 200 people died as a result of heavy rainfall and a torrential mudslide that swept through Dharali. So we need to step up monitoring, improve the warning system, and ensure that buildings aren\u2019t rebuilt exactly as they were before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> Those houses at the bottom of the valley \u2013 ultimately, they shouldn\u2019t be rebuilt there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Absolutely. We now need strict regulations, and they must be enforced. The government needs to be firm on this, and that\u2019s somewhat of a problem in Nepal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> You mentioned earlier that perhaps attributing the disaster to climate change is a way for the Nepalese government to shirk some of its responsibilities, at least in part; but even so, as a scientist, do you think global warming still plays a role in this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[M JABO]:<\/strong> Yes, we can\u2019t \u2013 well, I can\u2019t prove to you that it was climate change. But the fact that this event occurred means it\u2019s very likely that the glacier began to melt more intensely than before, or even that its behaviour changed, and that there is water beneath it generated either by previous rainfall or high temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>[JOURNALIST]:<\/strong> Thank you very much, Michel Jaboyedoff, for joining us once again. You are a geologist specialised in natural hazards and a professor at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Lausanne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Made with<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/corv.unil.ch\/\"><em>https:\/\/corv.unil.ch\/<\/em><\/a><em>!<\/em> <em>With a few corrections, notably (Dharali occurred in 2025)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2026\/audio\/tout-un-monde-14-09-29356501.html English [Journaliste]: Il y a trois semaines, une avalanche d&#8217;eau, de boue, de roche d\u00e9ferlait dans une vall\u00e9e \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re entre la Chine et le N\u00e9pal. Au moins &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1097,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"75157","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[75157],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-jabos-corner"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1097"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6943"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6946,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6943\/revisions\/6946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/risk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}