{"id":14869,"date":"2026-08-28T09:37:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:37:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/?p=14869"},"modified":"2026-08-28T09:38:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:38:17","slug":"m2-environnement-fluid-mechanics-et-msc-mechanical-engineering","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/2026\/08\/m2-environnement-fluid-mechanics-et-msc-mechanical-engineering\/","title":{"rendered":"M2 Environnement fluid mechanics et\u00a0MSc Mechanical Engineering"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/08\/espace.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"espace\" style=\"object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/08\/espace.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/08\/espace-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/08\/espace-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/08\/espace-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-accent-5-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-accent-5-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#212121;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.49), 19px);\"><em>Th\u00e8se en sciences de la Terre, soutenue le 22 septembre 2026 par Milton Salvador Gomez Delgadillo, rattach\u00e9 \u00e0 l&rsquo;Institut des dynamiques de la surface terrestre (IDYST) de la FGSE.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cyclones tropicaux (TCs, pour tropical cyclones) demeurent parmi les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques les plus d\u00e9vastateurs pour les populations humaines. Aussi des efforts consid\u00e9rables ont-ils \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s afin de comprendre ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes, dans le but de produire des pr\u00e9visions utiles. Traditionnellement, ces pr\u00e9visions reposent sur des mod\u00e8les de circulation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale (GCMs, pour general circulation models), qui fournissent une pr\u00e9vision globale de l&rsquo;atmosph\u00e8re et repr\u00e9sentent les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de grande \u00e9chelle influen\u00e7ant leur comportement. Pour rendre compte du comportement des TCs, ces mod\u00e8les servent ensuite \u00e0 piloter des mod\u00e8les \u00e0 plus fine \u00e9chelle, \u00e0 moins que les GCMs ne soient ex\u00e9cut\u00e9s \u00e0 une r\u00e9solution suffisamment \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour saisir convenablement leur comportement &#8212; deux solutions qui entra\u00eenent des co\u00fbts de calcul consid\u00e9rables. R\u00e9cemment, les mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9vision m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique fond\u00e9s sur l&rsquo;intelligence artificielle (mod\u00e8les AIWP, pour artificial intelligence weather prediction) se sont impos\u00e9s comme des solutions de rechange aux GCMs traditionnels, \u00e9conomes en calcul au moment de la pr\u00e9vision. Toutefois, ces mod\u00e8les n&rsquo;\u00e9tant pas r\u00e9gis par la physique, mais reposant sur l&rsquo;apprentissage de r\u00e9gularit\u00e9s pr\u00e9sentes dans leurs donn\u00e9es d&rsquo;entra\u00eenement, il est n\u00e9cessaire de d\u00e9terminer si, et de quelle mani\u00e8re, ils peuvent \u00eatre employ\u00e9s pour la pr\u00e9vision des TCs. La pr\u00e9sente th\u00e8se entend contribuer \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un premier objectif de cette th\u00e8se consiste \u00e0 \u00e9valuer si la premi\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de mod\u00e8les AIWP fournit des informations utiles \u00e0 la pr\u00e9vision de l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 des TCs. Elle montre que ces mod\u00e8les apportent une information de valeur pour la pr\u00e9vision de l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9, en s&rsquo;appuyant sur une hi\u00e9rarchie d&rsquo;algorithmes de post-traitement pour en \u00e9valuer l&rsquo;utilit\u00e9. Elle constate n\u00e9anmoins que, pour les algorithmes test\u00e9s, les erreurs atteignent au bout de trois \u00e0 quatre jours une ampleur comparable \u00e0 la variabilit\u00e9 naturelle des donn\u00e9es. Elle rapporte \u00e9galement que, au sein des mod\u00e8les \u00e9tudi\u00e9s, les algorithmes exploitant l&rsquo;information spatiale n&rsquo;offrent pas n\u00e9cessairement de meilleures performances que des r\u00e9seaux neuronaux plus simples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un autre objectif est de fournir des outils de benchmarking pour la pr\u00e9vision des TCs. Compte tenu des difficult\u00e9s que soul\u00e8ve l&rsquo;interpr\u00e9tation des performances rapport\u00e9es par les diff\u00e9rents auteurs de mod\u00e8les AIWP (e.g., la variabilit\u00e9 des m\u00e9thodes de suivi des cyclones et celle des jeux de test), il importe de disposer de moyens permettant de comparer \u00e9quitablement ces mod\u00e8les, tant entre eux qu&rsquo;aux mod\u00e8les traditionnels. La pr\u00e9sente th\u00e8se propose un tel r\u00e9f\u00e9rentiel, comprenant des \u00e9valuations d\u00e9terministes et probabilistes de la pr\u00e9vision de la trajectoire et de l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 des TCs. Enfin, la th\u00e8se vise \u00e0 fournir des outils permettant de comprendre les sources d&rsquo;incertitude des pr\u00e9visions de TCs r\u00e9alis\u00e9es \u00e0 l&rsquo;aide de mod\u00e8les AIWP. Elle cherche \u00e0 distinguer l&rsquo;incertitude imputable \u00e0 la variance des champs pr\u00e9dits de celle issue des mod\u00e8les de post-traitement.&nbsp;Cette question demeure ouverte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Th\u00e8se en sciences de la Terre<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":14870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[49465],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-theses-soutenues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/47"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14869"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14873,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14869\/revisions\/14873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}