{"id":14785,"date":"2026-07-07T10:29:57","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T08:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/?p=14785"},"modified":"2026-07-07T10:31:05","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T08:31:05","slug":"advancing-methods-for-urban-flood-risk-assessment-from-realistic-design-storms-to-generalizable-data-driven-flood-modeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/2026\/07\/advancing-methods-for-urban-flood-risk-assessment-from-realistic-design-storms-to-generalizable-data-driven-flood-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"Advancing methods for urban flood risk assessment: from realistic design\u00a0storms to\u00a0generalizable\u00a0data-driven flood modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"904\" src=\"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/07\/urban-flood.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"urban flood\" style=\"object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/07\/urban-flood.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/07\/urban-flood-300x271.jpg 300w, https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/files\/2026\/07\/urban-flood-768x694.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-accent-5-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-accent-5-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-elements-1211cc5e839750e46b4ab86d9170de40 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"color:#212121;font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.49), 19px);\"><em>Th\u00e8se en sciences de l&rsquo;environnement, soutenue le 14 juillet 2026 par Tabea Cache, rattach\u00e9e \u00e0 l&rsquo;Institut des dynamiques de la surface terrestre (IDYST) de la FGSE.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les inondations pluviales urbaines constituent un risque \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9chelle globale, entra\u00eenant des pertes consid\u00e9rables. La croissance d\u00e9mographique et l&rsquo;augmentation de la concentration des biens dans les villes, l&rsquo;extension des surfaces imperm\u00e9ables et l&rsquo;intensification des pr\u00e9cipitations extr\u00eames sont autant d&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e9ments qui vont contribuer \u00e0 accro\u00eetre le risque d&rsquo;inondations pluviales dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir. Par ailleurs, la non-stationnarit\u00e9 et l&rsquo;incertitude tant au niveau des al\u00e9as que de l&rsquo;exposition constituent un d\u00e9fi majeur pour l&rsquo;\u00e9valuation de l&rsquo;\u00e9volution du risque d&rsquo;inondations pluviales. En effet, les approches traditionnelles de mod\u00e9lisation des inondations urbaines, fond\u00e9es sur des sc\u00e9narios de pluie simplifi\u00e9s et des simulations informatiques tr\u00e8s co\u00fbteuses, pr\u00e9sentent des limites pour repr\u00e9senter la variabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9cipitations, prendre en compte l&rsquo;incertitude et permettre des analyses stochastiques afin de fournir des \u00e9valuations de risques robustes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette th\u00e8se propose de nouvelles m\u00e9thodes pour mieux \u00e9valuer les risques d\u2019inondation en milieu urbain. Elle d\u00e9veloppe d\u2019abord une approche permettant de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des pluies extr\u00eames plus r\u00e9alistes. Contrairement aux m\u00e9thodes classiques, qui utilisent des sc\u00e9narios simplifi\u00e9s, cette approche reproduit la variabilit\u00e9 observ\u00e9e dans les \u00e9v\u00e9nements de pluie r\u00e9els. Les r\u00e9sultats montrent que les m\u00e9thodes traditionnelles ont tendance \u00e0 surestimer certaines pr\u00e9cipitations extr\u00eames et peuvent donc modifier l\u2019estimation du risque d\u2019inondation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La th\u00e8se \u00e9tudie ensuite l\u2019impact de ces diff\u00e9rences sur les inondations simul\u00e9es. Les analyses montrent que la mani\u00e8re dont on repr\u00e9sente les pluies extr\u00eames influence fortement les estimations des zones inond\u00e9es et des dommages potentiels. Ces r\u00e9sultats soulignent l\u2019importance d\u2019utiliser des approches capables de mieux repr\u00e9senter l\u2019incertitude et la diversit\u00e9 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enfin, cette th\u00e8se d\u00e9veloppe un mod\u00e8le d\u2019intelligence artificielle capable de cartographier rapidement les inondations urbaines. Ce mod\u00e8le a \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7u pour fonctionner dans diff\u00e9rents environnements urbains et pour mieux s\u2019adapter \u00e0 des situations qu\u2019il n\u2019a jamais rencontr\u00e9es auparavant. Les r\u00e9sultats montrent qu\u2019il est plus performant et plus flexible que les approches existantes. De plus, il peut \u00eatre adapt\u00e9 efficacement \u00e0 de nouvelles villes gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des techniques d\u2019apprentissage par transfert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans l&rsquo;ensemble, ces travaux contribuent \u00e0 une meilleure \u00e9valuation des risques d&rsquo;inondation urbaine, plus robuste et plus efficace sur le plan informatique. En proposant des avanc\u00e9es \u00e0 la fois en mati\u00e8re de mod\u00e9lisation stochastique des pr\u00e9cipitations et de la simulation d&rsquo;inondations bas\u00e9e sur l&rsquo;apprentissage automatique, ils fournissent de nouveaux outils permettant de mieux prendre en compte l&rsquo;incertitude dans les projections d&rsquo;inondations futures, favorisant ainsi une meilleure prise de d\u00e9cision en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9silience urbaine et de r\u00e9duction des risques.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Th\u00e8se en sciences de l&rsquo;environnement<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":14786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[49465],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-theses-soutenues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/47"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14785"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14790,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14785\/revisions\/14790"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.unil.ch\/geoblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}